Monthly Archives: October 2018

More ‘blue wave’ statistics: Today’s updates

Posted on by
Reply

Today’s ‘Blue wave’ data–
Image result for blue wave 2018

From TargetSmart, sent earlier by Politico’s “Morning Score,” here are the ten highest vote totals of early voters and absentee voters, by state.

Texas, modeled GOP, still tops the list in totals of early/absentee voting. (Texas is one of 34 states allowing early voting. Texas also has one of the longest, freest periods for early voting, which began there on October 22 and ends November 2.)

A few changes to the list since yesterday, in more voting. Tennessee, heavily GOP, outpaces Arizona to move up to sixth in votes cast so far. Colorado and Ohio move up above Michigan, now tenth. (Michigan does not have early voting but has absentee voting.) All three states are modeled GOP by this Democratic political data-services firm, but Colorado looks more like a tie.

  1. Texas – modeled GOP    (3,250,301)
  2. Florida – modeled GOP   (2,551,975)
  3. California – modeled Dem      (1,622,906)
  4. Georgia – modeled GOP         (1,188,900)
  5. North Carolina – modeled Dem     (1,127,401)
  6. Tennessee – modeled heavily GOP     (849,722)
  7. Arizona – modeled GOP         (837,583)
  8. Colorado – modeled GOP, barely       (610,426)
  9. Ohio – modeled GOP    (604,595)
  10. Michigan – modeled GOP       (574,807)

California, modeled Democratic, is still third, and Illinois, modeled Democratic, is still eleventh. Of the ten states with the most early and/or absentee voters, eight are still modeled GOP.

North Carolina is still the only plus sign for the Democratic Party in this top-ten list. Below the top ten, Iowa is calculated at the same number as before and is still modeled Democratic (282,661). So is Virginia, still with lower early voting at 189,547.

Again, the early vote totals for Texas on the website are far lower than the count provided by the Texas Secretary of State. [10/30 mistake of mine corrected here: misread total registered voters.]

The helpful breakdown of party registration provided by the state of Florida shows that a majority of vote-by-mail ballots so far are Republican; a majority of early-vote-in-person ballots so far are Democratic. Votes by mail outnumber in-person early votes.

Wisconsin – modeled GOP (219,580), and Pennsylvania – modeled GOP (93,485) are as before. (Pennsylvania does not have early voting but has absentee voting.)

Regardless of state, many of the early/absentee voters are indicated as Caucasian and as over sixty-five.

 

Updates on that ‘blue wave’question for 2018 midterms

Posted on by
Reply

Is a ‘Blue wave’ really coming?

Image result for blue wave 2018

Again, from those helpful people at TargetSmart, sent around initially by Politico “Morning Score”–below are the ten highest vote totals, reported or estimated, of early voters and absentee voters, by state. A few changes to the list since last week, aside from more votes. Texas, modeled GOP, moved up from 5th to 1st in early/absentee voting. Colorado, modeled GOP slightly, moved up into the top-ten turnout in 9th place. Arizona, modeled GOP, moved up from 8th to 6th in vote totals so far.

  1. Texas – modeled GOP    (2,380,937)
  2. Florida – modeled GOP   (2,013,970)
  3. California – modeled Dem      (1,512,058)
  4. Georgia – modeled GOP         (1,053,445)
  5. North Carolina – modeled Dem     (1,049,521)
  6. Arizona – modeled GOP         (824,130)
  7. Tennessee – modeled heavily GOP     (805,652)
  8. Michigan – modeled GOP       (574,807)
  9. Colorado – modeled GOP, barely       (548,754)
  10. Ohio – modeled GOP  (535,373)

Net effects: California, modeled Democratic, moves down to 3rd; and Illinois, modeled Democratic, slides to eleventh. The other net effect: of the ten states with the most early and/or absentee voters, eight are modeled GOP by this Democratic political data-services firm.

North Carolina remains the only plus sign for the Democratic Party in this top-ten list both in modeling and in high early/absentee vote. Illinois – modeled heavily Dem  (479,867) – unsurprisingly – also shows solid turnout/returns, though less so than Tennessee among others.

Below the top ten states, Iowa is still good news for Democrats – modeled Dem (282,661). So is Virginia, but again with lower early voting at 160,822.

The two biggest states in the top ten, Texas and Florida, still look GOP, if the modeling is accurate. It should be pointed out, however, that the early vote totals on the website differ seriously from the count provided by the Texas Board of Elections. [My mistake: inserted total for registered voters.]

Michigan and Ohio voting still look Republican. (Michigan does not have early voting, so its high total means that an awful lot of people are taking steps to vote absentee.) So do Wisconsin – modeled GOP (219,580), and Pennsylvania – modeled GOP (93,485). If North Carolina has high early/absentee voting and Democratic modeling, Pennsylvania has correspondingly low returns, so far, and Republican modeling. (Pennsylvania does not have early voting but has absentee voting.)

Someone who really wants to crystal-ball-gaze with numbers might check out the data on how many of these early/absentee voters are indicated as Caucasian and as senior citizens, by the way.

Image result for blue wave 2018

Is there a ‘Blue wave’?

Posted on by
2

Is a ‘Blue wave’ really coming?

Image result for blue wave 2018

I’m not so sure. Or to put it better, I cannot see it from here, in the blue state of Maryland.

I’ll come back to the question next week. For now, here are some numbers on early voting, from TargetSmart, sent via Politico’s “Morning Score” emessage.

Early voting so far has been hefty but not out-of-sight (unlike the $$$ donations). (More on those next week.) Here are the top ten states, by vote totals reported or estimated of early voters and absentee voters so far:

  1. Florida – modeled GOP   (1,168,600)             [now 1,448,251]
  2. California – modeled Dem      (786,096)
  3. Georgia – modeled GOP         (742,017)
  4. North Carolina – modeled Dem     (709,603)
  5. Texas – modeled GOP            (678,680)         [now 1,187,007]
  6. Tennessee – modeled heavily GOP     (521,918)
  7. Michigan – modeled GOP       (428,692)
  8. Arizona – modeled GOP         (370,137)
  9. Ohio – modeled GOP  (369,526)
  10. Illinois – modeled heavily Dem  (246,006)

Of the ten states with the most early and absentee voters, seven are modeled GOP by this Democratic political data-services firm.

The only plus sign for the Democratic Party in this top-ten list both in modeling and in high early/absentee vote, so far, is North Carolina. (California and Illinois are both modeled deep-blue, but as usual; not much surprise there.)

Just below the top ten states, the next good news for Democrats is Iowa – modeled Dem (220,635). Minnesota early voters are also projected at more Democratic than GOP (185,215). Virginia is also modeled Dem, but with lower early voting at 124,752.

The two biggest states in the top ten, Texas and Florida, appear to be going GOP, if the trend lines continue. Meanwhile, the fact that Michigan and Ohio voting appears Republican-majority at this point calls into serious question any ‘blue wave’, let alone a blue tsunami.

Same point re Wisconsin – modeled GOP (119,168) [now 200,626], and for Pennsylvania – modeled GOP (56,004). If North Carolina is a bright spot for Democrats with high early/absentee voting and Democratic modeling, Pennsylvania looks correspondingly worse, with low voting and Republican modeling.

Obviously, early voting is still going on; the early and absentee ballots are not all in yet. Some updates can be found quickly, vide the State of Texas website.

Then there’s Election Day to come.

Predictions are vain, and there is no crystal ball. But some of the thuggish blue-wave triumphalism I’ve glimpsed looks premature, to say the least.

Image result for blue wave 2018

Who sent the bombs to Obama officials?

Posted on by
Reply

I am very curious to know who mailed the homemade-looking manila-envelope bombs to President Obama and the others. It is too soon for an affirmative theory. CNN and MSNBC instantaneously call President Trump the common denominator, also emphasize that the bomb addressed to Brennan was sent to CNN.

I hope all the bombs have been recovered. So far, there are two (actual) common denominators, besides the person who sent the bombs.

Bombs found so far were addressed to former President Barack Obama; his Attorney General, Eric Holder; his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton; and his CIA head, John Brennan. The others were addressed to California Democratic congress member Maxine Waters, an Obama supporter; and major Democratic donor George Soros, an Obama supporter.

[UPDATE Thursday: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/robert-de-niros-nyc-restaurant-reportedly-receives-suspected-mail-bomb-similar-to-those-sent-to-top-democrats-and-cnn.html 

  • Explosive devices similar to ones sent to prominent Democrats earlier this week was sent to actor Robert De Niro and former vice president Joe Biden, according to media reports.

So the list of Obama officials is now further filled in with President Obama’s vice president, Joe Biden. De Niro famously stumped for Obama.]

Image result for De Niro mail

The other common denominator is Florida congress member Debbie Wasserman Schultz. All the packages have her as their bogus return address.