Now, that’s a spoiler:
| % Precincts Reporting | 100.00 |
|---|---|
| Total Number Precincts | 591 |
| Num. Precincts Reporting | 591 |
| Registered Voters | 544,532 |
Click on map to enlarge.
Representative to Congress
Summary Results
Representative to Congress – District 12 – Unexpired Term Ending 01/03/2019
| Candidate | Votes | % of Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Balderson (R) | 101,574 | 50.15% | |
| Joe Manchik (G) | 1,127 | 0.56% | |
| Danny O’Connor (D) | 99,820 | 49.29% | |
| Total Votes Cast | 202,521 | ||
I have often distrusted or dismissed ‘spoiler’ accusations in the past. Too often they came from the boys on the bus, by no coincidence lobbed against good candidates, sometimes third-party like the Greens or the Working Families Party, sometimes just inconveniently good candidates in the major party, characterized as ‘fringe’–meaning no media attention. Thus no attention, no money, no establishment support. Used to be death knell.
(That word ‘fringe’ should have an auto-complete dog-whistle emoji.)
Now, we’ve actually got a spoiler. In the much-hyped special election August 7 in Ohio’s 12th congressional district, unofficial returns from the Ohio Secretary of State are in.
Troy Balderson (R) – 101,574
Danny O’Connor (D) – 99,820
Joe Manchik (G) – 1,127
Pulling out the handy ten-dollar pocket calculator here . . . The numerical difference between Balderson’s (R) total and O’Connor’s (D) is exactly 1,754.
Joe Manchik (G) can thank his lucky stars that he did not do better. Another 627 votes from the people of the Twelfth, and he would go down in history with–well, with no one. When push comes to shove, a ‘third-party’ candidate is disallowed as a factor once the election is over. Vide Manchik. Neither of the articles on the special election in my issue of the Washington Post today mentions his name. In fact, no WaPo article on last night’s election results mentions him. See here and here and here, for example.
A state-mandated recount will be under way soon, and provisional ballots remain to be counted. It remains to be seen how many votes Manchik will net from the ongoing ballot count. Up slightly, affecting O’Connor by that much more? Net outcome for Balderson and O’Connor also remains to be seen, though the tone of WaPo coverage is that the process will benefit O’Connor. The New York Times is also presenting the race as one still winnable by O’Connor.
So, O’Connor up slightly? — thus pulling O’Connor within the arithmetical range affected by Manchin?
Speaking of coverage–ironically, this is one time that, out here in general-public-land, we’re not hearing about a spoiler , at least not from the press.
There’s another one in Michigan, and a bigger one, also being omitted from today’s coverage.
More on that bad news later.
[Update]
Politico article today on the photo-finish close race in Ohio 12th also does not mention Manchik.