Tag Archives: Florida State

The Sports Line and Fortune Cookies

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Fortune-cookie College Bowl Season

 

Great Ending: Auburn vs Alabama

Now that the 2013-2014 bowl season has ended and 35 games in the NCAA football bowl schedule have been played, we have a final tally on the odds makers. On 35 games, the line was wrong at least thirteen times. On picks correctly choosing the winner, more than a dozen grossly failed to forecast the game, the scores, and the margin.

The last returns came in last night. In the BCS Bowl, Florida State was favored by two scores.

Final score: Florida State 34, Auburn 31.

This time at least the bad pickers–I mean the bad boys–picked the winner correctly. They just blew the game. Down by three is not the same as down by two touchdowns. This was another one I was not able to watch throughout. From what I was able to see, however, Auburn lost at least as much to itself as to the other team. Auburn owned the first half, except for a couple of wobbles late in the half, and FSU was never dominant. Maybe the hype won this one. After this bowl season, anyone who would cite Vegas on sports odds has to be ranked as out of touch.

Fortune

Do they believe what they read in fortune cookies? Have you ever wondered why there isn’t massive theft in fortune-cookie bakeries, where the fortunes are put out? Or why people aren’t thronging newspaper boxes and newsstands, to grab the earliest horoscope predictions for the day? Either the line isn’t what it used to be, or it never was any good, but either way his season exposed  how much those sports predictions resemble the ones in fortune cookies. Their adherents must be the same people who awarded the Heisman.

Which Odds Makers Will Get today’s College Bowl Wrong?

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Which Odds Makers Will Get today’s College Bowl Wrong?

The first weekend in January 2014 produced two of the less noticed football bowls.

Saturday, Jan. 4, in the BBVA Compass Bowl, Vanderbilt was favored over Houston by a field goal.

Final score: Vanderbilt 41, Houston 24

Sunday, Jan. 5, in the GoDaddy Bowl, Ball State was picked over Arkansas State by two scores.

Final score: Arkansas State 23, Ball State 20

BBVA Compass Bowl

Spread predictions here.

Another one up, one down, on the simple win-loss, so another 50-percent win ratio for the odds makers. Again, the correct pick also underestimated the game. Vanderbilt was not predicted to head for a blowout, undo it, and then win anyway by three scores.

Again, the line was emphatically wrong. So much for odds making. Where does Vegas get these experts?

As of today, the last day of the 2013-2014 bowl season, 34 of 35 games have been played on the NCAA football bowl schedule. For the 34, thirteen picks have been wrong, and more than a dozen picks choosing the winner have given a wrong picture of the game. Are they trying to lure bettors in? Those odds get inserted into almost all coverage of the games, in regular news media.

Another reason for not betting on college sports: every time you do, you contribute to compromise and taint the press further.

B_S

Going forward

On to the next college bowl game; how will the next picks hold up?

Coming up next, tonight is the big one, the BCS Bowl. Ranked #1 Florida State will play ranked #2 Auburn. Auburn comes off a series of miracle wins; Florida State off allegations of sexual assault against its compartmentalizing quarterback.

Florida State is favored by two scores.

Today’s question: Who will get today’s bowl wrong?

 

One more to come.