Hillary Clinton’s Emails

Actually, the title of this post is a misnomer. They are the public’s emails. But as with the contents of the U.S. Mint, public ownership and public access are two different things.

What we do going forward is what matters most. Facing these State Department emails, let’s start with some constructive recommendations. Here would be my recommendations for policy and best practices, if I could vote on them.

From this time forth,

  1. Work emails for a government agency should be done using government-issued equipment. “GI” wasn’t a bad name for the guys who bore it.
  2. If government personnel choose to send emails or other communications they deem private or personal, on government equipment, it should be with the understanding that the messages are subject to authorized scrutiny. (Many university campuses have pretty much this arrangement, with considerably less of a rationale than the State Department would have.)
  3. When someone’s government service ends, emails and other correspondence should be reviewed by an independent entity (three or more objective people, with enough sense and character to divide up the job equitably). The independent entity would determine which communications are work-related and which, if any, are not.
  4. The non-work-related communications would not be deleted. They would be quarantined for 50 years. The work-related correspondence would be archived according to policy.
  5. To keep the difficulty and expense for others to a minimum, government workers should be advised to keep their personal communications while at work to a minimum. Restrict personal communications to their personal email accounts, and restrict personal emailing or telephoning to their off time (lunch, breaks, after hours).

Emailing is still a relatively new form of communication (if older than IM, texting, or tweeting). Policy to cover communication in government still needs refinement. State and local governments, businesses at all levels, academia, the judicial system and the world of medicine have the same issues.

Not that there aren’t worse problems. 

That said, Secretary Clinton’s arrangement is unique. As described yesterday in the Washington Post,

The server that Clinton used as secretary of state was stored at her home in Chappaqua, N.Y., and was shared with her husband, former president Bill Clinton, and his staff. The device was managed during that time by a State Department staffer who was paid personally by the Clintons for his work on their private system.

Setting aside lurid suggestions floated by the GOP, the most rational conjecture as to why Secretary Clinton would set up a private email server is that she wanted to hang on to the material to recycle later, in more books about her career. This is the simplest theory that fits the known facts, including the Clintons’ conduct when leaving the White House in January 2001.

Continuing the saga as outlined most recently in the Post, the server with the emails was taken over by Platte River Networks in 2013; the emails were removed from a second server in 2014; and Clinton’s attorneys then separated the emails they designated as work-related from those they designated as entirely personal. The good news in the most recent Post report is that the deleted emails may be recovered. I hope so; and if there is any question about which emails should released for public reading, that’s what judges are for. My understanding of Clinton’s previous statements is that she and her attorneys intended to turn over all work-related emails.

Clear enough, as far as it goes. However, media discussions of the emails are usually confusing, because the concepts of “public” and “private” are confused. Secretary Clinton’s work as secretary of state belongs to the public. This statement does not mean that all details can be released to the general public. In the public interest, some operations of a public office need to be kept confidential. In the public interest, personnel matters are kept private; government employees like other people have a right to privacy. In the public interest, the safety and security of people who work for us, like the Secretary of State, are protected. Again in the public interest, the safety and security of dignitaries, government officials, and private citizens of other countries are protected.

That matter of safety and security–unfortunately–is one of the places where Hillary Clinton’s private email server fell down.

Some clarification is necessary here.

I have ignored Republican hype about Benghazi from start to finish, partly because I am wrapping up a book on another subject; partly because the investigation so far looks bogus.

(Benghazi’ hearings /One /GOP tack to /Undermine /Sense.)

The party that campaigns on “shrinking government” has little room to talk about security. Shrinking “government” means shrinking security. It means shrinking information. It means shrinking advance notice and advance warning and advance planning. It means shrinking tactics, let alone strategy. It means shrinking transparency, oversight, and accountability. It means shrinking the talent pool, in diplomacy, security, and the military as well as in everything else. In practice, it means outsourcing, off-shoring, and subcontracting–all of which are security breaches waiting to happen.

I might add that a party willing to violate the Logan Act, eager to invade other countries, and always ready to downgrade diplomacy and diplomats is not positioned to point fingers over the deaths of heroic foreign service officers and ambassadors. You cannot trust a faction that writes a separate open letter to the state of Iran. And the contestants in the Republican race for the White House have expressed little awareness of what the U.S. Foreign Service, and U.S. diplomats, face. When they bring up dangers abroad at all, it is generally to voice a scurrility about President Obama, who inherited all the disasters left by the previous administration, has done more to contend with such than any other administration in U.S. history–and has had to surmount opposition to even the most common-sense diplomacy, from the very people who created the disasters.

We could also add the party’s over-all allegiance to thuggery, violence, tough talk, and the weapons industry to the list, while we’re at it. The GOP as the party of “security”? Small wonder it scrambles to deflect attention from its own problems, to a lightning rod like either of the Clintons.

So it was a matter of surprise and no little chagrin to learn that the Secretary of State had set up a private email server to handle her State Department work. In other words, she conducted government work on equipment that she purchased and controlled privately. Whether the equipment was “private” in the security sense remains to be seen. Clinton did keep it private in the ownership sense (private property); she did not donate it to the State Department. I am not going to jump to conclusions, especially about security matters, and I have never been a fan of hysteria, especially in politics or the news media. But the emails released so far do reveal a few facts.

Setting aside both the wild accusations and conjecture from the right wing, and the inaccurate or smarmy defenses from Clinton and her allies, some valid statements can be made.

  1. Many of the Clinton emails contained sensitive information. No matter how delusional Republicans in Congress get, the actuality remains that of 4,368 emails released in August, hundreds indicate sensitive details from the daily operations of State and/or negotiations with foreign individuals or entities, in 2009 and 2010. Leaving diplomacy itself out of the picture, if you genuinely care about the safety of the people involved in it, you might care that more than 1,500 emails mention or discuss a “call” or “meeting” or “schedule,” often signaled in the subject line, with the whens and wheres. Thus if some ill-disposed person (besides Sen. Cotton) wanted when-and-where on Secretary of State Clinton or on people she was dealing with, hundreds of emails contained the information. Searching for the predictable word “call” generates 1,409 emails. Many contain “call” in the subject line. Searching for “meeting” generates 836 results, many with “meeting” in the subject line. Some were sent by Clinton, although understandably she received far more than she sent. Often, dates and/or times of the call or meeting are included, and often in the subject heading–along with the names of the people involved. The 2009-2010 emails contain few references to Libya, and none to J. Christopher Stevens, Sean Smith, or Benghazi; emails from 2012-2013 will presumably contain more.

While waiting to see those relevant emails, we basically have to hope that no antagonists hacked them or read them, or did so effectively. Clinton’s emails often detailed the when and where of her schedule, with times, dates, places, and names. About 60 emails are a “Mini schedule” for Clinton (heading in subject line). “Mini schedule” emails appear throughout 2009 and 2010. So do emails featuring the word “schedule” in general, with 377 results, sent and mainly received by Clinton, again with “schedule” often indicated in the subject line. The phrase “conference call” generates 31 results, nine from Clinton and the rest received by her; several of these also signal “call” or “schedule” in the subject line.

One oddity is that this set-up was created by someone who, according to the Post, has imposed a series of barriers for reporters trying to get through with questions for her 2016 campaign, and who has complained for years about her lack of privacy, about constant media scrutiny, etc. As Secretary of State, Clinton seems to have assumed that her position protected her privacy, including communication channels she set up outside State.

  1. Hundreds of Clinton’s emails show consciousness of security. References to the “secure” turn up 645 times in the August batch of emails, sometimes in the subject lines. “Secure” includes a “secure line” (15 results), or “talk secure” (13 results, two sent by Clinton), or a “secure phone” (5 results) or a “secure call” (16 results, 2 from Clinton). An email of March 3, 2010, refers to Clinton’s “yellow phone.”

The acronym OPS turns up 148 times. This abbreviation seems to refer to the Watch Officer, State Department Operations Center S-ES/O, 202-xxx-xxxx, Andrew Kim Johnson for one. About 25 of these emails were sent by Clinton, although others are replies with messages sent by Clinton in the email chains. Clinton herself often referred to OPS.

This point brings up a third one.

  1. The email chains show combinations of personal and government, government and political, and personal and political. Partly such combinations would occur in any office or organization. Whose work emails would be devoid of all reference to birthdays, births, or congratulations? But this server and this government correspondence–as we now know–were not in a workplace. It’s funny in a way that Clinton operated a small State Department communications center in her own and her spouse’s private residence. Clinton donors strike me generally as exactly the people who would tend to ridicule a political candidate, for example, whose campaign headquarters were his home.

In any case, some of the email-chain combinations look less benign. There is no denying that Clinton used the OPS secure line for private matters and/or for political matters, not just for high state matters. She refers to doing so. An easy example, not lurid, comes from February 2010.

On February 9, Clinton emailed several colleagues and friends (7:39 a.m.) that New York Times columnist David Brooks “Took a shot at me in his column today,” and asked, “Any idea what prompted it?”

The recommendation in reply was to bring in Brooks, and perhaps other rightwing columnists, “for an OTR with you.”

Clinton agreed but suggested that something more was needed: “Agreed–full speed ahead. But, I think we may also need a more aggressive strategy of pushing our message. Can you call me at home thru OPS? Thx.”

A career State Department employee also replied, but keeping the separate tracks separate, “Philippe and I had an offline conversation about this and I agree entirely” that the Secretary should talk with Brooks and others.

One could argue that mingling social and other emails in the same chains might assist security: the mixed email chains and the mixed subject lines might camouflage, or at least not flag, high state matters. Or so I thought, before I noticed all the emails headed with indicators about what the Secretary would be doing that day, with whom, and when.

 

More later.

Donald Trump, Staying Puft

Fun’s fun. Admittedly, it has been fun to watch Donald Trump ruining the field for sixteen or more other Republican candidates for the White House. He’s like a human-shaped cue ball. Knocked into the rack, he has sent minor and major candidates careening in all directions, colliding with each other and banging up against sides of the green baize table. All their careful game plans gone awry. Their carefully tailored appeals overwhelmed. Their thoughtfully crafted pathways to attention in a crowded field, demolished by the Trump campaign, if you call it that. More oafish and media-baiting than Chris Christie, more openly immigrant-baiting than Scott Walker, more plugged in than Jeb Bush, more ‘centrist’ or unpredictable on some individual issues than any governor, more woman-baiting than any other candidate–Trump has exploded the usual paths to celebrity for other Republicans. He’s stomping on their dog whistles. Red meat? Next to Trump, they look more like pink SweeTARTS®.

Here they are

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of people. As said, the spectacle is fun to watch. Serves them right.

Still, given that some GOP voters out there clearly hope that Trump will swing down in a golden chariot from his Tower, and scoop them up from whatever financial doldrums they’re in, it is only fair to point out that deep questions about Trump’s own finances remain open.

Is Trump distracting attention from something?

A few facts are clear from Donald Trump’s 92-page financial disclosure filing to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). One is that Trump is carrying a heavy debt load. He owes four creditors “Over $50,000,000” apiece; his loans total $215 million-plus to $400 million-plus; and at least $25 million to $125 million in loans come due in the next four years. Trump, who has declared bankruptcy four times, has taken on more than $130 million of the current debt since 2012. Trump has claimed a huge income on air, and also claims to be willing to spend $1 billion on the 2016 election, if that’s what it takes to win, but the debt load is still sizeable from any perspective.

The FEC filing also shows that few people who are not Trump himself employ Trump, or pay him for work. His occupational income seems to be largely speaker fees or fees for managing properties now partly owned by others; his pay for managing his own companies is not shown. The financial disclosure form also shows that Trump has sold or liquidated substantial assets in value stocks and in bank funds from the beginning of 2014 to now, the period covered by the filing.

It is not clear whether the assets were sold to finance Trump’s White House bid or for other reasons. The asset sales generated handsome capital gains; his own more volatile companies and properties–the corporations and LLCs with Trump as officer or member, and the famous hotels and resorts, etc., bearing the Trump name–were not sold. The FEC filing also does not clarify Trump’s net worth. Not a balance sheet or a budget, it does not clarify the proportion of income to outlay. Trump’s campaign and press office, contacted by phone and email on August 13, have not responded to questions.

Trump floated one of his preliminary statements about running for president back in 2011, with sources quoted by Politico putting out word that he was worth $7 billion. The net worth figure was disputed even at the time: “The eye-popping figure is far higher than the $2.7 billion that Forbes Magazine valued his net worth to be last month.” Estimates of Mr. Trump’s net worth have fluctuated, with Bloomberg News and the New York Times among others expressing skepticism when Trump upped his claim to $10 billion. Trump’s own estimates have also fluctuated, although Trump’s much-quoted emphasis on his wealth–“I’m really rich“–remains a constant. Since launching his campaign on June 16, Trump has reiterated the brash statements about his wealth, seemingly at every opportunity.

One statement not being recycled, however, is the unnamed 2011 sources’ claim that Trump’s financial disclosures would indicate “more than $250 million of cash, and very little debt. He is very, very liquid.”

The man at the moment

As of 2015, in actuality, Trump’s financial disclosure filing shows massive debt and undefined liquidity. “Part 8: Liabilities” (page 47) lists fifteen debts. Two are Merrill Lynch mortgages totaling less than $1 million. The remaining thirteen are gargantuan. Trump’s filing shows “Over $50,000,000” owed to Ladder Capital Finance LLC; Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas; Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC; and Capital One, although the Capital One deal has an asterisk showing it refinanced with Ladder Capital. Trump also owes another $25 million to $50 million to Deutsche Bank, due in 2024, and $5 million to $25 million to Deutsche Bank due in 2015. He also owes $5 million to $25 million apiece to seven other creditors including Bank of New York Mellon, Ladder Capital, Royal Bank America, and Amboy Bank. Two of the loans come due in 2015, one in 2016, two in 2017, and three in 2019. Setting up a blind trust for a Trump term in the White House would be a challenge.

One question put to the Trump campaign is whether the debts are in any way problematic. Does Trump expect to pay them all? If so, will he resolve them before entering the White House, should he win? If not, how would they be handled?

Meanwhile, one of Trump’s “Over $50,000,000” notes comes from an entity owned 100% by Trump himself (page A3), called Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC. Chicago Unit Acquisition generates income (page 13)  listed as “None (or less than $201).” This Trump-to-Trump loan is Trump’s highest-interest big loan, at Prime + 5%. No deadline year is given; the “Term” column is filled in with the phrase “Springing loan.”

Other questions put to Trump concern this springing loan. Not an MBA myself, and not being Barry Ritholtz, I had to look up the phrase. A “springing guaranty” is a guarantee that takes effect when something bad happens, like bankruptcy. (This arrangement is also called a “bad-boy guarantee.”) According to the asset wizards at Andrews Kurth, in a springing guarantee, “the borrower is required to fund an escrow account serving as additional security for the loan.” This way, if something bad happens–“say a key tenant decides not to renew its lease”–“when funded, the borrower has more skin in the game to offset drops in value.”

One way to keep the feds off your back? Run for the White House. What better position could there be, from which to argue that an investigation is ‘politically motivated’? Ask Hillary Clinton.

On page 13, Trump lists the value of “Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC” at $1,001 to $15,000 (thousands, not millions). So he owes the LLC at least 3,333 times its value, or he owes it to himself, or to a tiny LLC owned wholly by himself, to fund an escrow account, in case things go wrong? If he owes it to himself, is this enforceable? Will the loan be paid off? Does it have to be? If listed as a “springing loan,” is the escrow requirement enforceable, when the creditor is owned by the debtor? Whatever this dizzying arrangement means, the FEC filing makes clear that Trump owes somewhere in the neighborhood of half a billion dollars. Depending on how much over $50 million the phrase “Over $50,000,000” means, he could owe much more. Trump himself has spoken on the campaign trail in favor of transparency. It would be nice to have the debts elucidated. Trump has repeatedly said that candidate Jeb Bush is a “puppet” for donors who give him millions. Point taken, but what about a candidate who has been lent millions, or hundreds of millions?

As listed in “Part 6: Other Assets and Income,” substantial assets have been liquidated or sold since the beginning of 2014, in stocks and funds. These sales did not include the 501 corporations or LLCs for which Trump lists himself as director, president or member. The sales were of Baron funds, Paulson funds, and DJIA major companies. Recently, Trump has sold assets held in twelve of eighteen bank funds (page 35). Amounts are given in ranges, and some capital gains are combined with interest and dividends, but the sales total falls somewhere between $2 million and $15 million. The filing does not make clear how much of the fund assets remain.

Trump has also sold company stocks from several brokerage accounts, although he still owns stock in at least 190 companies. Oppenheimer and one Deutsche Asset brokerage account seem to be the fullest; a different Deutsche Asset account and a JP Morgan account seem to be the emptiest. Many remaining company stocks are listed as producing no income, “or less than $201.” Meanwhile, the JP Morgan brokerage account (pages 44-45) shows stock in forty companies from Amazon to Yahoo effectively cleaned out, their remaining value listed as “None (or less than $1,001).” Stocks sold include several on the current Dow Jones Industrial Average–Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble. The “Over $5,000,000” realized from Bank of America stock appears to be Trump’s best sale or liquidation. Nobody’s wrong all the time. B of A is also one of the largest donors to Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.

If these sales were connected to the White House campaign, there may be more sales, depending on how much the campaign costs in coming months. (“$1 billion”?) Again, the ranges given on the standardized form do not show much remains viable for further sales and assets liquidation.

Pageant winners

In the past, Trump’s flamboyant business career involved buying the Miss USA and Miss Universe beauty pageants, which deflected media attention from his real estate troubles. He is now putting himself on a pageant stage. How serious the run is remains to be seen, but the effectiveness of the deflection is undeniable. Trump has brashly and repeatedly emphasized how much he has given to politicians–“almost everybody on this stage,” he said famously (and falsely) in the August 6 GOP debate. The emphasis on his giving deflects attention from how little he has received, usually a benchmark of candidate success. (“I don’t care”; “I don’t want their money.”) The campaign website has a button for donating, of course. Data from the Center for Responsive Politics show donors to Donald Trump to be few and far between. Similarly, Trump’s brash emphasis on his own companies deflects attention from the fact that he is not hired as CEO and chair of other people’s large companies. His brash emphasis on his wealth–in general terms–deflects attention from his bankruptcies, his volatility, and the lack of specific disclosures on income and net worth.

Ironically, this is the one GOP campaign getting high marks for truthfulness. Donald Trump, who with one of his lawyers concocted the line that a woman attorney wanted to breast-pump in front of him, is the only Republican getting credit for telling it like it is. Media commentators are paralleling Trump to Bernie Sanders–both ‘outsiders’. Actually, Trump is an insider, as his financial disclosures make clear.

The man himself

A better parallel would be to the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man (with thanks, or apologies, to the late Harold Ramis et al. at Ghostbusters). So long as he can stay on his feet and bully, he can roll through the avenues of New York. Impervious to loss, shame, or bankruptcy, buoyed up (in GOP opinion polls) by pestilential behavior, he stays afloat.

 

Next up:   Hillary Clinton’s emails

Hillary Clinton Would Be Awful for the Democratic Party in 2016

Clinton as Secretary of State

 

And the Republicans know it.

This post will be short.*

Clinton would be the worst possible choice for Democratic nominee in 2016. Every flaw revealed in the 2008 campaign is still there, not to be ignored in a presidential campaign. Clinton’s one plus is that much of her work as Secretary of State was good; she was part of a good governmental team. But even that work has been compromised. With moral idiocy, Clinton set up a private server for emails. While working for the United States, she used her own email account. So much for benefiting from, and reinforcing, the teamwork of respected professionals. A life in public, and she still does not understand that governmental work belongs to the people of this nation?

Keeping her emails private enabled Clinton to stockpile her writing and correspondence as SecState for future books, of course. Anything to make another few million bucks. (This point has not been made in media commentary about the emails.)

Speaking of money, one strength the Clintons undeniably have is the ability to raise millions. (The fact that I do not understand why people throw money at this unsavory pair is beside the point; they do throw money.) So the Clintons could make partial amends for their thirty years of hysterical selfishness in Arkansas, by continuing to raise money for charity. Instead, as ever with this pair, it is self uber alles. 2000 redux.

And the GOP knows it. Notice how every ‘establishment’ pundit and every GOP public figure has treated Clinton as an inevitability. The tactic kills several American birds with one stone. 1) It denies media attention to every better Democratic candidate. 2) It puts the worst possible face on the Democratic Party. 3) It ensures that most money goes to Clinton, slowing down other potential candidates. 4) It diminishes the gulf between the two major parties, foregrounding the creepy, self-engrossed Clintons and cementing the Dems more firmly to the worst of Wall Street.

The upside for Dems is that the idea of running against ‘Hillary’ has encouraged a multitude of demented candidacies for the GOP nomination. But meanwhile, the GOP has a vested interest in undoing the Obama administration as much as possible, as their only shot at position and money. Promoting ‘Hillary’ is the easiest and cheapest way to do that.

Simple point: the Clintons had thirty years in Arkansas. If they had done a good job, Hillary Clinton would have run for the Senate from Arkansas. If Bill Clinton had been the person he could have been, he would have retired to Arkansas, and been content, like Cincinnatus. But during their THIRTY YEARS in Arkansas, they did as little for working families as they could get away with doing. Their energies were focused elsewhere. And when Democratic voters wanted something better for working families, the Clintons were always there, to throw other figures under the bus, as ‘liberal’.

The ticket our establishment pundits envision in store for us is appalling. I read, but I am one voter among many who will never vote for either a Bush or a Clinton.

 

* I am working on a book that takes most of my writing time.

After the election. Part 1

GOP game plan: Now, the midterm elections are over. Let the harm to the nation begin.

What a difference a few days make. Very quick run-down here, on some key issues, before and after November 4.

Circuit Judge Jeffrey Sutton before the Senate

On gay marriage:

Opposing a national trend and many better-qualified judges on the bench, two rightwing judges ban gay marriage in four states. In case you had not noticed, the cases were filed in 2012; argued in 2013; proceeded in 2014. The opinion was announced after our midterm elections. More on the decision here. It was written by George W. Bush appointee Jeffrey Sutton, joined by Bush appointee Deborah Cook. A quick glance at their ideological track record tells the story.

One other thing these two Circuit Court judges have in common is that neither received Senate confirmation, after being nominated to the court by GWBush, until a post-9/11 Republican Senate, presided over by Vice President Dick Cheney, was in position.

So, to all the depressed-turnout voters who just sat out the midterm election in Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee who have now lost another round: bear in mind that whom you elect to Congress matters, in off-years as well as in presidential election years.

Senator Mitch McConnell, appearing in public

On the Affordable Care Act:

Speaking of coming out, House Speaker John Boehner and probable Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have now exposed themselves in the Wall Street Journal. Yes, Virginia, McConnell is going to try to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

Contrary to what McConnell said on Fox News television a week before the election, he’s going after Obamacare.

I suppose the only real question is why Roll Call covered for McConnell, giving further play (and credibility) to his falsehoods on television:

Updated 9:35 p.m. | Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says Republicans won’t be able to repeal Obamacare [sic] anytime [sic] soon.

Tempering the expectations of conservatives a week before the elections that could install him as the first Republican majority leader in eight years, the Kentucky Republican said in a Fox News interview Tuesday a repeal of the health care law simply wasn’t in the cards for now.

He wasn’t telling Fox News anything that close observers of the Senate and the budget process didn’t already know, but it serves as a reminder of the limitations Republicans should expect even if they net six or seven seats, given the obvious reality that President Barack Obama is still in the White House.”

Actually, that is not a real question. It is a rhetorical question; Roll Call is pro-GOP, not nonpartisan.

Anyway, to all of the voters in Kentucky who sat out the election figuring that at least McConnell would be smart enough not to try to destroy every attempt at health insurance reform: you just lost another one.

I told you so.

This is what you get when you rely for ‘analysis’ on paid shills or media-outlet groupthink, whether at Roll Call or in the big-city daily newspapers or on NBC.

The problem goes back a few years. With the amnesia typical of political coverage, few media outlets recall (or reveal) the political temper dominant in the news media only ten years ago. So simple, so forgotten: A candidate who mentioned that people ought to be paid a day’s wage for a day’s work was laughed out of town, or ignored. (Who could win with an argument like that?) It was largely Barack Obama who up-ended that political worldview, somewhat as J. K. Rowling up-ended the conventional wisdom that ‘young people don’t read’, and (much earlier) Dr. Seuss up-ended the notion that children’s books had to be eye-glazingly dull.

There are some small enclaves in the national political press who will never forgive him. Sorry, but some people are more threatened by merit than supportive of it. When times are tight, those individuals tend to get worse, not better.

Note to human beings: the ‘smart money’ is usually wrong, at least when the smart money comprises a small number of under-qualified and over-promoted individuals in a declining profession–whose decline was brought about largely by their own misdirection of resources.

I say this with love.

Once again, dear friends: when, between c. 1980 and 2006, did you ever see insurance industry problems/abuses/outright fraud discussed with clarity and focus in national political coverage?

 

More later.

 

 

WHAT YOU DIDN’T READ, ABOUT THE 2014 ELECTIONS

WHAT YOU DIDN’T READ, ABOUT THE 2014 ELECTIONS

Memo to Democrats: This is what you get, when the face of the Democratic Party is the Clintons.

Memo to Democrats: No passionate voter likes a lack of choice, a monopoly candidate.

Memo to Democrats: Passionate voters are not inspired by an election that looks preordained. Let alone by an election that looks bought. Let alone by an election that looks preordained, bought, timid, platitudinous, and uninteresting.

Wishes and hopes

Memo to Dems: Candidate Hillary Clinton lost the 2008 primaries decisively. She had more money and endorsements than popular appeal. She continued to downgrade other candidates, after the strategy ceased to wok. She and her husband were the boys-on-the-bus choice rather than the people’s choice. She and her husband were more the Republicans’ choice for a Democratic Party candidate than Democrats’ choice.

Memo: All of these factors persist today.

Memo to Democrats: A first in U.S. history, when Hillary Clinton fell behind during the primary process, she made open comments on the campaign trail that seemed to accommodate the possibility of assassinating a more popular candidate. She (and her team) tried to play the race card against a better and more effective candidate.

Memo to Dems: Playing to the David Gergens of the world works for Republican candidates; it does not work for Democratic candidates. The national political press has not effectively reported, let alone supported, movement on issues of national importance (recall the Washington Post’s campaign against health insurance reform), especially when reporting might benefit Democrats. It has aggressively reported the eccentricities and frailties of Tea Party types, while covering for establishment GOP candidates (recall the absolute silence this year about the young George P. Bush’s run-ins with the law, including the stalking incident/s re a former girlfriend).

In happier news: President Obama had a good press conference yesterday. As usual, he made important points with admirable concision. Among them,

  • “voters expect us to focus on their ambitions, and not on ours.”
  • two thirds of the electorate did not vote
  • “Voters went five for five” to increase the minimum wage. In other words, the minimum wage won in all five states where it came on the ballot (even when GOP anti-minimum-wage candidates won their senate races).
  • “We are more than simply a collection of red and blue states. We are the United States.” 

He also listed, concisely, a few items on the agenda for the current Congress, before its term ends: support for measures domestic and abroad against the Ebola virus; authorization to use military force against ISIS; and a budget that will cover the rest of the fiscal year.

Then you get the other side:

More GOP name-calling for a woman

Speaking of items not reported, or not reported with clarity, below are a few examples (besides the young George P. Bush’s stalking) of what newspaper readers did not see in the 2014 election cycle. Items are boldfaced.

A Democratic Party candidate is not written about as a “moderate,” in the national political press. That word “moderate” is reserved for Republicans, raising questions such as, ‘What is the “moderate” number of deaths from unsafe toys/unsafe workplaces?”

The GOP establishment prevented Tea Partyers and other unwelcome candidates from winning in 2014. Following several prominent examples from 2012–Richard Mourdock, Todd Akin, etc.–the party was aware of the dangers going into 2014, well aware of them. And the Republican Party establishment met the challenges at every turn except for the Virginia primary that ousted Eric Cantor and, possibly, except for the Iowa primary that elected Joni Ernst. David Brat was the only challenger/Tea Party-type who did not have to meet other challenger/Tea Partyer candidates in his GOP primary. (Cantor did not have to contend with another establishment figure/rival, either. But having the establishment field to himself wasn’t enough.)

So simple, so effective: In primary after primary, the establishment candidate was alone; the Tea Partyers were multiple. So the arithmetic of the field won, almost every time: a divided vote on the “insurgent” or Tea Party side gave the establishment candidate or incumbent a majority or at least a plurality of the electorate, almost every time. (The Iowa senate primary was the only exception, and a mixed bag; the Chamber of Commerce supported Ernst, as did the Washington, D.C.-based company that created her two attention-getting ads.)

Little to none of this scenario was reported in the national political press, even when the national political press covered a state or local election, and even when boys-on-the-bus coverage used the incumbent/establishment versus challenger/Tea Partyer model. Instead, the inevitable outcome of a Republican primary was inevitably reported as a victory for “moderate” GOPers over extremists/outsiders/clowns/rubes/Ebola-laden virus carriers, regardless of the margin of victory for the establishment figure, and regardless of the vote share taken by non-establishment candidates.

There is no guarantee, of course, that a one-against-one race will produce a win for the Tea Partyer. But the party took no chances. In every primary of any significance, the field was cleared for the ‘establishment’ type, and almost every time, the arithmetic of the field was decisive.

It was actually D.C.-based media consultant Todd Harris who came up with the hog and gunshot ads for Joni Ernst in Iowa. Ersatz machismo, Iowans. You voted for second-hand K Street knockoffs, thinking they were independence.

This nonsense is infuriating to anyone who actually knows anything about farming. My maternal grandparents were farmers, and they raised a couple of pigs each year–piglets in spring, sausages in fall. The hogs were humanely fed and treated, although no one made a big song and dance about it. They were not castrated. Castrating the animals is designed to produce an unnaturally large and capon-like hog, analogous to tying geese down and force-feeding them to produce fois gras. Ernst’s and Harris’s castrating metaphor is another indication of the ties that bind to agribusiness, not of robust independence. Ernst could use the username bogusfarmgrl. The Ernst-Harris ad made an effective call for campaign donations from agricultural interests, as the gunshot ad called successfully for donations from the NRA. The latter also, of course, called for assassinating a president. The established political pundits who let that one pass failed a significant test.

The Bushes are back. Not with a groundswell of enthusiasm. Under-qualified Bush administration alumni are still doing their usual, and some got elected to office. Others continue to work publicly or behind the scenes in government, media, and NGOs. The burrowers should have been fired in 2009.

Al Gore Should Have Built a Smaller House. MSNBC should have kept Keith Olbermann. Al Gore fired Olbermann at CurrentTV (after I published a brief criticism of Gore’s non-eco-friendly house construction) and then sold CurrentTV to Al Jazeera. MSNBC is not worth watching. No Olbermann; too little reporting; too much parroting the boys-on-the-bus groupthink.

Memo to Democrats: Being in office does not give you some magical, Tinkle Bell-fairy dust protection against losing office. Corollary: Having the endorsement of official Democrats does not necessarily win you the office.

What works, if anything will, is trying to do a good job in office. As Working Families points out, “Unless and until Democrats are seen as actually improving people’s lives, the path is open for Republicans to stoke fears about declining living standards and stoke white anxiety about a racially changing America.” Democrats who showcased their work on raising the minimum wage and passing paid sick days for workers, for example, won.

In this context, a few words on some more local races in Maryland are in order. Again, boldface for the non-reported or under-reported items.

Maryland was not a Republican sweep. The governorship went to the purportedly anti-tax white guy, but Dems Peter Franchot and Brian Frosch won state Comptroller and Attorney General respectively. None of the Maryland Democrats in the U.S. House were even threatened with a close race, except John K. Delaney in District 6, who won anyway; Delaney’s opponent did get more votes on Election Day but not enough to overcome Delaney’s large advantage in the early voting.

It did not help Dems, or electoral participation, in Maryland that late Washington Post editor Ben Bradlee’s death on October 21 meant several days of non-stop articles in the paper about the Washington In Crowd, a week before the 2014 elections. The orgy of self-back-patting over Post glory days, while understandable, does not appeal to any population.

In good news from Maryland, and Prince George’s County, a series of bond issues passed, as did other referenda.

The only Prince George’s County referendum that lost was one extending term limits for County Council and County Executive from two terms to three consecutive terms. Looks as though Rushern Baker’s running unopposed for County Executive (except for write-ins) was not overwhelmingly popular. Baker hasn’t done enough in office; too busy playing keep-away. Try to ‘explore’ the feeble county web site.

Rushern Baker, endorsed by the Washington Post, and running unopposed for reelection, got a total 184,663 votes for County Executive. The total was somewhat more than for the Clerk of the Circuit Court and the Register of Wills got, also running unopposed. But less than the highly qualified and effective Angela Alsobrooks got (185,770) for State’s Attorney from P.G., also unopposed.

State Senator Victor Ramirez got 14, 363 for reelection as state senator for District 47–the lowest vote total in the state, for a winning senator, opposed or unopposed. Several losing candidates for state senate also got more votes.

Back to the national scene:

If Mark Begich loses in Alaska, then three Democratic incumbent senators will have lost, in predictable states–Begich; Mark Pryor in Arkansas; and Kay Hagan in North Carolina. Of the three, Hagan and Begich did far better than Pryor. Pryor’s wipe-out in Arkansas should make the hack pundits quit drooling over Bill Clinton (or Hillary Clinton) as campaigners and vote-getters.

Stumping and stumped in Arkansas

Hillary Clinton did not run for Senate from Arkansas. No one mentions the fact. In all the palaver about the Clintons as pols, hasn’t anyone noticed that they did not leave Arkansas in good shape for Democrats? Their team had thirty years in Arkansas. They did as little for the 99 percent as they could get away with doing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Remember the ‘nanny party’?

Remember ‘the Nanny Party’ ?

Has anyone noticed that since the most recent Ebola outbreak began, we’ve been hearing less about Democrats as ‘the Nanny Party’?

Maybe paying attention to public health and public safety is starting to look good.

What with one thing and another, there has been less from the GOP, lately, about

  • defunding the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
  • slash-and-burn budget-cutting across the board in the U.S. government, including cuts to funding for the FAA and for U.S. airports where international passengers will be screened for Ebola, funding for the four specialized hospitals in the U.S. where Ebola patients are treated, and funding for vaccine research
  • abolishing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
  • repealing the Affordable Care Act 

There has been less blatant use even of the broad-brush “tax and spend” mantra, and when it is used, the slogan is a sign of a fading campaign.

Not that the bad days are gone forever.

Mike Lee, Ted Cruz

For one thing, whack jobs are still out there, running for office in 2014. Regardless of the outcome in the race for U.S. senator from Iowa in 2014, it will remain incredible that a candidate like GOPer Joni Ernst could run. For the record, Ernst is another candidate who has called for eliminating the EPA–along with the IRS (i.e. funding our government) and the Department of Education.

 

Joni Ernst claims

For another, the Republican Party generally tones down most of the most rapacious proposals right before an election. The (perennial) game plan is to sound halfway decent, for the few weeks leading up to elections, and then to implement the Let’s-bring-back-the-Great-Depression policies in office afterward.

 

More later

The fundamentals are always in place, beyond the silly ‘nanny’ ridicule, beyond the opposition to all public health programs, beyond even the attacks on federal agencies that many people have noticed.

Of our two major parties, by and large it is always the Republican Party that supports the three strategems most dangerous to public health and public safety, along with jobs:

1. Privatizing. See Rick Allen in Georgia (“no position”? on Social Security?). Rick Scott in Florida; also here. Dan Benishek in Michigan, also here. Rick Snyder in Michigan. Fred Upton in Michigan. Tom Cotton in Arkansas.

2. Outsourcing. See House Republicans (CISPA). Terri Lynn Land in Michigan. David Perdue in Georgia; also here. Rick Scott in Florida. Scott Brown in Massachusetts New Hampshire. Tim Walberg in Michigan.

3. Offshoring. See Senate Republicans. David Perdue in Georgia. Carlos Curbelo in Florida.

What privatizing, outsourcing, and off-shoring have in common–aside from damage to employment at a decent wage–is that they are all inherently potential security breaches.

Contracting out to private companies shifts you from cave canem to the dog that didn’t bark in the night. No more public watchdog means lower standards, less accountability to the public.

Outsourcing to a raft of ‘contractors’ leads to a raft of ‘subcontractors’, and each additional level of contracting is another pore (figuratively speaking) to breed suppurating pustules of incompetence, theft, and neglect.

Off-shoring is not only a way to undermine the U.S. middle class. Off-shoring jobs opens more doors to fraud; off-shoring assets enables tax evasion on wealth, including the wealth of multi-national corporations.

All of this is fairly clear. The national political press should report it more clearly.

Elections 2014, and New York District 21 Is Looking Weird

Elections 2014, and New York District 21 Is Looking Weird

Candidates Stefanik, Woolf, and former candidate Funiciello

Okay, this is just strange. A former GWBush official is running for Congress in an upstate New York district, and polls show the race as close. Admittedly, the official in question–Elise Stefanik–was only a minor official under Bush, and New York’s 21st District does not number among those suffering worst from the invasion of Iraq. Stefanik was still in prep school at the Albany Academy for Girls when George W. Bush got the White House after the non-vote count of 2001. She was barely out of college–a Harvard grad–when she went to the Bush White House, where she worked for the Domestic Policy Council under Karl Zinsmeister and for Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten.

But the struggle continues. More recent items on the plummy resume include this kudo from her alma mater, “Elise Stefanik (SAC 2006) has joined the Foreign Policy Initiative as director of communications and external affairs.”

FPI: The new PNAC

The Foreign Policy Initiative, for those of you keeping tabs at home, is the newest avatar of the former Project for the New American Century (PNAC), long since designated as a cyberspace ghost town but in its heyday the think tank that brought us the Iraq invasion with its consequent ills. Founders and directors include Bill Kristol and the other head cases who worked feverishly, for years, to make terrorism the new communism; committed to revisiting their palmy days in the Cold War, they went the old military-industrial complex one better, by working ceaselessly to make a cold war hot. This is the leading edge young, up-and-coming GOPers want to associate themselves with?

To coin a phrase, have these people no shame?

Other items on the resume include work for 2012 presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty, where Stefanik was titled Director of New Media and Deputy Policy Director. Stefanik also founded an entity called “American Maggie,” now defunct.

But be it noted that the valid criticism here is not of small-time efforts or even of failed efforts. The criticism is of awful efforts.

The late great poet Adrienne Rich was right: amnesia in the public discourse is a continuing problem.

 

One in a series of short posts on especially soul-destroying 2014 races.

Blacks helped Thad Cochran win? –Not so fast.

Blacks helped Thad Cochran win? –Not so fast.

A seductive meme: ‘Black voters in Mississippi helped Thad Cochran win’. But it sounds too good to be true.

One day after the primary, the story makes the rounds like Paul Revere, except faster and in a warmer climate–black voters held their noses, or better, and put Sen. Thad Cochran over the top in a perilously close runoff, after he was being written off for dead by the national political press. Examples abound, like here and here and here and here. A related meme and a more refined way of saying the same thing runs that ‘Democrats helped Cochran pull off the win’; a by-product of Mississippi’s ‘open primary’ system, Cochran’s win is attributed to crossover voting by Democrats who did not vote in the June 3rd Mississippi primary, as in this article. There are less polite ways of putting the same thing; setting aside most of the predictable non-news-media examples from wingers, a typical partisan example runs here, with an interesting thread. ‘Cochran won with the help of Democrats’ is all over cyberspace, not entirely with a view to praising Cochran.

Challenger Chris McDaniel himself is taking a version of the same line, expressing public doubt about whether the GOP senate primary in Mississippi was won by Republican voters.

From the top–it is entirely possible that a few African-Americans voted for Cochran, and in an extremely close county, even a few votes would influence the win, at least for that county. For my money, though, it is highly unlikely that the outcome in Hinds County will turn out to have been brought about by African-American votes.

Maybe not all white

If I turn out to be wrong, so be it; I’ll believe it when I see it. Further evidence will be interesting. Meanwhile–

This is a juicy story, and I am all for juicy stories. In a payback’s-a-bitch kind of way, it is almost irresistible: McDaniel supporters who did everything but show up in white sheets to vote, stymied by some of the overlooked figures disenfranchised for so long, like a scene from Blazing Saddles. In somewhat more elevated perspective, the story is appealing as another chapter of forgiveness in a very long book. It is also refreshing in showing at least some acquaintance with history; recognizing, for example, that the flatland (alluvial plain) areas of Mississippi are the areas with the largest majorities of African Americans, for reasons briefly explained below.

 

But at this point, whatever truth there may be in this story is getting way too big a megaphone. It seems almost ungracious to raise questions, but questions remain.

 

Two sides of GOP coin

For a start, we do not know how many African Americans turned out to vote in the June 24 runoff. A few media interviews do not make a trend; more importantly, they do not provide exact and accurate numbers. Since Mississippi does not register voters by party, we do not know how many registered Democrats voted in the runoff; we do not know how many of the June 24 voters were Republican and how many were Democratic. In fact, party registration in the Magnolia State has to be inferred from votes, after an election, as in this 2012 article. (Note that the piece quotes then-State Sen. Chris McDaniel on a GOP ‘enthusiasm gap’.) Or, of course, one can try to infer it from ethnicity, since the Mississippi GOP has been the de facto White People’s Party ever since the Dixiecrats ran out of sand.

Logo but no Raymond Loewy

Mississippi has 82 counties. Cochran carried some 52 of them in the June 3rd primary–a better outcome than hinted by most of the media coverage. In the June 24th runoff, he lost two counties that he had won before, while increasing his totals and of course improving the outcome.  As widely reported, both Cochran and McDaniel upped their totals and the turnout on June 24. The over-all vote from unofficial results was Cochran 185,104 to McDaniel 179,263 or a statewide margin of 5,841 for Cochran.

The scenario making the rounds is that Cochran won by drawing more votes in majority-black counties, especially in the Mississippi Delta. This synopsis is the one that needs demurral. There is a difference between saying that Cochran won in black-majority counties, which is accurate–though not the whole picture–and saying that Cochran won because blacks voted for him. The latter statement needs careful checking.

(For convenience, I am using this map.)

Landscape

Start by taking a look at the Delta region, actually not deltoid but a rather broad swath of flat land–alluvial plain–running north and south up and down the Mississippi River, in Mississippi and Arkansas. This land was farmed as ‘plantations’ in Mississippi in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, importing large numbers of slave laborers, because its immense tracts of fertile soil were ripe for the early versions of agribusiness, making cash crops like cotton and rice profitable where they were less feasible in the wooded hill country elsewhere in the state. The descendants of slaves outnumber the descendants of slaveholders in Delta counties–a fact not lost on the state’s white power structure.

 

Unsolicited book plug

True enough, Cochran won in every Delta county up and down the Mississippi River, except for Wilkinson County down at the bottom of this stretch (but north of the Gulf Coast), and DeSoto County at the very top of the stretch (but south of Memphis). However, look at Cochran’s margins of victory in these lands of former grandees.

Vote margins, heading south down the Mississippi River from Tunica County:

  • 149
  • 313
  • 689 (Bolivar)
  • 849 (Washington)
  • 55
  • 424 (Warren)
  • 49
  • 26
  • 273

Remember, these are actual votes cast, not percentages. Of these Delta counties, Cochran won three by fewer than 100 votes. He won another three by fewer than 500 votes. This is nine out of 82 counties, all majority African-American, giving Thad Cochran a total vote margin (in unofficial returns) of 2,827 votes. A win is a win, of course, and some of the percentages are impressive–Washington County went for Cochran by 70 percent, Tunica County by 72 percent–but those percentages mask some very micro numbers. Issaquena County gave Cochran the win by a whopping 71 percent–which translates into 92 votes (to 37 for McDaniel). It is entirely possible that this turnout, which will surely earn Mr. Cochran the nickname of ‘Landslide Thad’ for the next several years, was 100 percent white.

For good or ill, this is not a black avalanche. In fact, Cochran’s wins all along the river gave him a total margin of victory less than the margin for McDaniel in DeSoto County alone; DeSoto, also touching the river but majority white, went for McDaniel by a margin of 3,904.

The Delta being a fairly wide expanse in some places, let’s move over one row of counties eastward, to be thorough, and tally the next north-to-south row of counties. This series of 13 counties begins just south of DeSoto County, which as mentioned went almost two-to-one for McDaniel. Though not touching the Big Muddy, these counties are contiguous to those next to the Mississippi and share some features. Tate County at the north end of this row of counties, and majority white, went for McDaniel, as did Franklin and Amite at the south end of this stretch. The counties that Cochran won gave him the following margins, north to south:

  • 79
  • 86
  • 154
  • 413 (Sunflower)
  • 210
  • 234 (Sharkey)
  • 235 (Yazoo)
  •  5,301 (Hinds)
  •  86
  • 432 (Lincoln)

Again, these are the margins by numerical vote. (In my county, they would look more like precinct totals, not county totals, except for the Jackson tally.) Cochran won three of these counties by fewer than 100 votes, six by fewer than 500 votes, and only one–Hinds County, with the city of Jackson–by a substantial margin.

Margins for McDaniel in Tate, Franklin, and Amite:

  • 596
  • 166
  • 380

Compare these margins. Leaving Hinds County aside, Cochran’s total margin for this row of counties one over from the Mississippi was 1,929. McDaniel’s total margin for his wins in three counties in this row was 1,142. Counting Hinds County, Cochran’s total vote margin from his wins in these 24 counties was 10,057. McDaniel’s total vote margin, in the same area of the state, in counties where he won, was 5,046. The difference even including Jackson is 5,011 votes.

Yes, McDaniel lost the state by only 5,841 votes.

But he won Jones County (alone) by 9,209 votes.

Taking a look at the statewide picture from a different angle, let’s start with majority-white areas that went for Cochran. Take the Gulf Coast.

Majority white Harrison County gave Cochran a solid win. Hancock County, 90 percent white, gave Cochran a solid win. Of the three Mississippi counties on the coast, all three with very sizable white majorities, only Jackson County went for McDaniel, by 296 votes.

Cochran’s total vote margin in the largely-white Gulf Coast of Mississippi:  410 + 3,633 – 296 = 3,747.

The Gulf Coast vote for Cochran is being written about–or written off–as the result of military contracts, and it may indeed be related to business and contracts. That still leaves the rest of the state. Cochran won almost two-thirds of the 82 Mississippi counties, spread over the state from Alcorn in the north to Harrison in the south, and from Bolivar in the west to Lowndes on the eastern border with Alabama. Two additional small majority-black counties that went for Cochran include Noxubee, with a margin of 64 votes, on the eastern border of the state, and Kemper just south of Noxubee, with a margin of 80 votes. Majority-white counties that went for Cochran include Tippah, Alcorn, Prentiss, Lauderdale, Lowndes, Monroe, Smith, Simpson, Scott, Newton, and Neshoba. This list is not exhaustive, and more detailed analysis of the runoff election will have to wait for official vote tallies. Meanwhile, however, it will be wise to remember that while McDaniel did better than Cochran in some rural thicketed counties, Cochran still won quite a few of them. And while McDaniel indeed seems not to have won any counties that were not majority-white, Cochran won a sizable number of both majority-white and majority-black counties.

Furthermore, the small vote totals leave an outcome easily conceivable in a universe of white, Republican Mississippi voters. If Cochran’s vote totals and margins had been in the tens of thousands, the picture would be different. But neither the votes themselves nor the increase in Cochran’s turnout over the June 3 is evidence of African-American ballots. Cochran may have grown his vote “in the Mississippi Delta, the largely black and strongly Democratic northwest of the state,” as in this roundup in Slate, but neither the increase nor the margin of victory nor the number of votes cast shows an incursion of cross-party voting; the numbers fall easily inside the range of possibility for–frankly–exclusively white voters. In any case, the brief scenario linked here omits the fact that Cochran also grew his vote in other terrains and in numerous other counties around the state, as above.

Time will tell more about such evidence as there is. The weird case of the McDaniel supporters has yet to unfold. Meanwhile, the outside-agitators meme is better confined to the extreme amounts of money actually, provably, demonstrably spent on this statewide runoff, rather than extended to fantasies of voter sabotage of an ‘open primary’.

 

Next: This Is an “Open” Primary?

Washington Post Gives Pesticide Industry a Clean Bill of Health

Washington Post Gives Pesticide Industry a Clean Bill of Health

Remember The Godfather

This is becoming a pattern for WashPost, the newspaper to which I subscribe as an inside-the-Beltway resident: one Health section article after another downplays organic food, or the impact of antibiotics, or vegetarian eating. Today the running score is boosted in an article titled “Is organic really healthier?“: Corporate products umpteen, health concerns zero. (Note that the article is titled differently online from the Prince George’s County edition–usage corrected, claim modulated.)

To be sure, the Post  Food section runs plenty of reduced-fat recipes and evinces other attention to lowering calories; health concerns are not ignored in culinary articles. However, when the dividing line is between you and the corporate interest–rather than between you and fat–the other side gets the greener turf. Today’s Health section front-pager opens, “Organic or conventional?”–i.e. which to buy? It then runs through a broad list of several major foods–excluding sweets and desserts–and concludes that there is little if any qualitative difference between organic and conventional milk, meats, produce, and eggs, and that there are insufficient data to draw conclusions about fish.

Dead as mackerel

Concerns mooted and downplayed, for the foods discussed, include pesticides, antibiotics, and hormones. Canning processes, bottling processes, frozen goods, slaughtering, warehousing, packaging, shipping, and breeding are either not discussed  or are not analyzed in detail. No insect eggs or rodent hair here. Hey, those are protein. What happens inside vending machines, refrigerator trucks, conveyor lines, goes unrepresented. No discussion of BPA, estrogenic chemicals, cleaning fluids. Also no discussion of molds, mildew, mouse droppings.

The salmonella who came in from the cold

For the record, the article also does not mention herbicides. The Post over-all does sometimes throw some vocabulary in the direction of herbicides as a concern, if briefly–here and here and here, for example. The business press also mentions herbicides from time to time, but in more capitalist-running-dog fashion–like here and here.

The late Stanley Kubrick would have appreciated our learning to be philosophical about foreign substances in the food chain; it’s the dernier cri in tough-mindedness. How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Pesticides. The late Joseph Heller would have appreciated how creating a chemical-proof plant, or a chemical-resistant plant, would be hailed as a breakthrough.

Somehow the whole trend line reminds me of a decades-old but great cartoon about ‘holes in the ozone layer’. There was a time, if you remember, when many people worried about the ozone layer. The running gag about a woman with your stereotypical Eighties-style big hair was that she used so much hairspray she deserved to have a hole in the ozone layer named after her.

Some of this damage to Earth’s atmosphere was attributed, at the time, to use of aerosol sprays–regardless of the product; not just hairspray. So one cartoonist encapsulated our love of science, our hope-springs-eternal faith in progress as a means to undo the damage of past progress, and our miracle-in-a-can mindset: two men are pictured, one holding up an aerosol can, the other saying, “By George, I think you’ve got it.” The aerosol can is labeled, in big letters, OZONE.

Back then, it was a joke. Now it passes for science.

And that, children, is how research grants work.

Past threats

 

The Sports Line and Fortune Cookies

Fortune-cookie College Bowl Season

 

Great Ending: Auburn vs Alabama

Now that the 2013-2014 bowl season has ended and 35 games in the NCAA football bowl schedule have been played, we have a final tally on the odds makers. On 35 games, the line was wrong at least thirteen times. On picks correctly choosing the winner, more than a dozen grossly failed to forecast the game, the scores, and the margin.

The last returns came in last night. In the BCS Bowl, Florida State was favored by two scores.

Final score: Florida State 34, Auburn 31.

This time at least the bad pickers–I mean the bad boys–picked the winner correctly. They just blew the game. Down by three is not the same as down by two touchdowns. This was another one I was not able to watch throughout. From what I was able to see, however, Auburn lost at least as much to itself as to the other team. Auburn owned the first half, except for a couple of wobbles late in the half, and FSU was never dominant. Maybe the hype won this one. After this bowl season, anyone who would cite Vegas on sports odds has to be ranked as out of touch.

Fortune

Do they believe what they read in fortune cookies? Have you ever wondered why there isn’t massive theft in fortune-cookie bakeries, where the fortunes are put out? Or why people aren’t thronging newspaper boxes and newsstands, to grab the earliest horoscope predictions for the day? Either the line isn’t what it used to be, or it never was any good, but either way his season exposed  how much those sports predictions resemble the ones in fortune cookies. Their adherents must be the same people who awarded the Heisman.